1. Urbanisation and the Mobility Imperative
Urbanisation is expected to be a central pillar of Viksit Bharat by 2047, with urban India projected to emerge as the primary engine of economic growth. It is estimated that over 60% of India’s population may shift from low-productivity rural areas to higher-productivity urban centres by the 2060s. This transition will significantly increase daily intra-city movement between residential areas and workplaces.
The scale of this population movement makes urban mobility a structural governance challenge, not merely a transport issue. Efficient mobility systems will determine productivity, quality of life, and environmental outcomes in Indian cities. Failure to address this adequately risks congestion, economic inefficiency, and declining urban liveability.
2. Smart Cities versus Expanding Metros
Policy narratives have often emphasised the creation of smart cities, where proximity between work, residence, and services would reduce mobility needs. However, unlike in China, most of India’s newly emerging smart cities have not matured into self-sustaining urban hubs.
In contrast, existing metros and Tier-1 cities continue to expand rapidly, absorbing population, capital, and jobs. This expansion has intensified daily commuting distances and placed immense pressure on existing transport systems. As a result, urban mobility challenges are most acute in large metropolitan regions rather than in planned new towns.
3. Government Response: Strengthening Public Transport
Recognising the challenge, recent policy efforts have focused on expanding public transport capacity, particularly buses and metros. The Union Budget introduced several initiatives to improve urban mobility.
Key measures include:
- PM e-Bus Sewa – Payment Security Mechanism, targeting the deployment of ~10,000 urban buses
- PM Electric Drive Revolution in Innovative Vehicle Enhancement (PM e-Drive), supporting:
- 14,000 e-buses
- 1,10,000 e-rickshaws
- e-trucks and e-ambulances
Despite these efforts, the scale remains insufficient. Estimates suggest India requires around 2,00,000 urban buses, while only ~35,000 buses (including e-buses) are currently operational. This gap highlights a mismatch between policy ambition and on-ground capacity.
4. Access Deficit and International Comparison
Limited public transport access remains a major constraint. According to the Economic Survey (January 31):
- Only 37% of India’s urban population has easy access to public transport
This compares unfavourably with:
- Brazil and China, where over 50% of urban residents have convenient access to mass transit
Low accessibility pushes commuters toward private vehicles, worsening congestion, pollution, and energy consumption. It also disproportionately affects low-income workers who rely on affordable public transport for livelihoods.
5. Metro Rail: High Capacity but High Cost
Metro systems have been a major focus of urban transport investment, supported largely by central funding. While metros offer high-capacity and low-emission transport, they involve high capital and operational costs.
Several structural issues persist:
- Most metro systems have not achieved projected ridership levels
- Cost recovery remains difficult except on very high-density corridors
- Users are highly fare-sensitive, with even small fare increases reducing ridership
- Poor last-mile connectivity reduces effective utilisation
Unlike developed countries that heavily subsidise urban transit, India faces fiscal constraints that limit the scope for sustained operational subsidies.
6. The Need for Cost-Effective Road-Based Alternatives
Given fiscal and operational constraints, India needs cost-effective, road-based public transport systems, particularly for last-mile and medium-distance travel. Budget allocations for urban buses have increased, but private investment remains limited due to uncertain returns.
Current policy emphasis has shifted:
- From CNG buses to more expensive e-buses
- Towards cleaner technologies such as electric, hydrogen, and biofuels
However, some proven modes remain underexplored in Indian planning, especially trams and trolleybuses, despite their long-term financial and operational advantages.
7. Life-Cycle Economics of Transport Modes
Evaluating transport systems through life-cycle cost and revenue analysis provides clearer insights into sustainability and fiscal viability.
Key estimates indicate:
- Trams:
- ~45% long-term profitability over a 70-year life cycle
- High scalability and alignment with climate goals
- E-buses:
- Net loss of ~82% over a comparable life cycle
- High operational and replacement costs
- Trolleybuses:
- Moderate efficiency
- Small net losses, but lower overall benefits than trams
These findings raise questions about whether current investments prioritise short-term optics over long-term sustainability.
8. Policy Choice at a Critical Juncture
India’s urban mobility strategy stands at a crossroads. Continued reliance on modes that require constant subsidies may strain public finances without delivering commensurate benefits. In this context, the proposed introduction of trams in Kochi could signal a shift toward more financially viable and sustainable transport solutions.
Revisiting older technologies is not a nostalgic exercise but a pragmatic response to contemporary challenges. Integrating trams and similar systems could diversify India’s urban transport mix and improve resilience.
Conclusion
Urban mobility will play a decisive role in shaping India’s urban future under Viksit Bharat 2047. While investments in metros and e-buses are important, long-term success depends on aligning capacity, cost, and accessibility. A balanced transport strategy that combines high-capacity systems with cost-effective, road-based alternatives is essential to ensure inclusive, efficient, and sustainable urbanisation.