1. Recasting the Monroe Doctrine: The Emergence of the ‘Donroe Doctrine’
The alleged abduction and incarceration of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces at the start of 2026 is presented as evidence that the Monroe Doctrine (1823) is not only alive but has been radically reinterpreted. The action signals a shift from diplomatic and economic coercion to direct military enforcement of U.S. primacy in the Western Hemisphere.
This development matters for global governance because it suggests a weakening of the principle of state sovereignty, a cornerstone of the post-1945 international system. By justifying unilateral intervention as a security imperative, the U.S. risks normalising extra-territorial coercive actions.
The muted global protests further reinforce the perception that international norms against the use of force are eroding. If left unchecked, such precedents may lower the political cost of similar actions by other major powers.
This reflects a governance logic where power, rather than multilateral norms, becomes the primary regulator of international conduct; ignoring this shift risks accelerating a breakdown of rule-based global order.
Implications:
- Normalisation of unilateral military interventions
- Reduced deterrence against violations of sovereignty
- Increased instability in regions labelled as “zones of influence”
2. The Post-1945 International Order and the Rise of ‘Spheres of Influence’
The limited international response to U.S. actions is interpreted as tacit acceptance that the post-1945 liberal international order is weakening. The idea of a “free for all” in the global commons is gaining traction, where power hierarchies override legal constraints.
This creates conditions where countries such as China and Russia may feel emboldened to assert claims over territories they consider strategically vital. The article implicitly links this trend to China’s long-standing claim over Taiwan.
For global development and peace, this shift undermines predictability in international relations. Smaller states, in particular, face heightened vulnerability when great power competition overrides multilateral safeguards.
When global governance mechanisms lose credibility, strategic competition intensifies, and ignoring this dynamic risks greater conflict spillovers across regions.
Challenges:
- Weakening of international law enforcement
- Increased strategic uncertainty for middle and small powers
- Decline in effectiveness of multilateral institutions
3. U.S. National Security Strategy 2025 and Western Hemisphere Primacy
President Trump’s National Security Strategy (November 2025) explicitly states the U.S. intent to reassert dominance in the Western Hemisphere and deny external powers military or strategic footholds. The Venezuelan operation is portrayed as a deliberate execution of this doctrine.
This approach frames security in zero-sum terms and revives “shock and awe” tactics adapted for the 21st century. Implicit threats toward countries such as Cuba, Colombia, Mexico, and even Greenland, indicate an expansive interpretation of U.S. security interests.
Such a posture affects global governance by blurring the line between defence and coercion. It also complicates alliance management, particularly within NATO and transatlantic relations.
Strategic doctrines that prioritise unilateral dominance over cooperative security risk long-term instability and alliance fatigue if their consequences are ignored.
4. Europe, NATO, and the Ukraine Conflict
The NSS criticises Europe for strategic complacency and calls on it to assume primary responsibility for its own defence, while hinting at a recalibration of relations with Russia. This reflects a U.S. desire to reduce its security burden in Europe.
The Ukraine conflict is described as stalemated, with prospects of a negotiated settlement that may dissatisfy both sides. Alternatively, prolonged conflict risks escalation and geographic spread within Europe.
For governance, this underscores the challenge of balancing deterrence, diplomacy, and burden-sharing within alliances. Europe’s security architecture remains in flux.
If Europe fails to adapt strategically, unresolved conflicts like Ukraine could erode regional stability and weaken collective security mechanisms.
5. West Asia: Fragile Calm and Renewed Fault Lines
West Asia presents a mixed picture, with Israel’s military campaign temporarily paused but underlying tensions unresolved. The situation in Gaza remains volatile, with violence capable of resuming at short notice.
Simultaneously, internal unrest in Iran and pressure on the Khamenei regime have intensified. Iran’s declaration of fighting on four fronts—economic, psychological, military, and counter-terrorism—highlights systemic stress within the state.
The possibility of renewed U.S.-Israeli intervention raises concerns of regional destabilisation, affecting energy security and regional development.
Ignoring the interconnected nature of West Asian conflicts risks cyclical violence that undermines long-term peace and economic recovery.
6. Afghanistan–Pakistan Region and Democratic Regression
Northwest Asia, particularly Afghanistan, is witnessing a resurgence of militant groups such as the Tehreek-e-Taliban, exacerbating insecurity along the Afghanistan–Pakistan border. This directly affects regional stability.
Pakistan’s internal political trajectory is marked by increased military dominance, with Field Marshal Asim Munir overshadowing the civilian leadership. This signals democratic backsliding despite formal constitutional structures.
U.S. re-engagement with Pakistan through arms supplies alters regional power equations, with implications for South Asian security dynamics.
When security considerations override democratic governance, institutional erosion follows, increasing long-term instability.
7. China’s Strategic Position in 2026
China is portrayed as having navigated U.S. economic pressure effectively in 2025, leveraging its control over global supply chains and rare earth exports. This enhanced its strategic resilience.
China’s expanding presence in Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean challenges traditional U.S. dominance and reshapes maritime geopolitics. The Eastern Pacific is no longer seen as an exclusive U.S. sphere.
For global governance, China’s rise underscores the transition toward a multipolar economic and strategic order.
Failing to account for China’s adaptive strategy risks misreading future power balances and trade dynamics.
8. India’s Strategic Dilemmas in a Fragmented World Order
India enters 2026 facing strategic ambiguity. Continued imports of subsidised Russian oil have drawn U.S. criticism, straining India–U.S. relations despite broad strategic alignment.
India’s relative isolation in conflict zones like West Asia reflects the costs of great power competition. U.S. support for Pakistan’s military leadership further complicates India’s security environment.
At the same time, mini-lateral initiatives such as I2U2 and the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor offer selective opportunities for engagement.
India’s governance challenge lies in balancing strategic autonomy with economic and security partnerships; ignoring this balance risks marginalisation.
9. Terrorism Outlook for 2026
While India may avoid major terror attacks in 2026, terrorism remains a persistent threat. Instability in West Asia, upheaval in Iran, and militant regrouping in Africa create fertile ground for extremist networks.
Groups such as Islamic State and al Qaeda are better positioned in certain regions, with potential spillovers into Asia and Africa.
Terrorism thus remains a critical national security concern requiring sustained vigilance and international cooperation.
Underestimating diffuse and decentralised terror threats risks reactive rather than preventive security responses.
Conclusion
The geopolitical trends outlined for 2026 point toward a world marked by unilateralism, weakened multilateral norms, and intensified great power competition. For India and the global community, adapting governance and security strategies to this evolving order will be essential to safeguard stability, development, and institutional resilience.
