Background: U.S.–Israel Strikes on Iran
- The war began on February 28, when the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran, citing “existential” and “imminent” threats.
- Many analysts initially expected that the combined military power of the U.S. and Israel would defeat Iran quickly.
- However, Iran retaliated strongly, striking targets previously considered safe or untouchable.
- The conflict has now entered its second week, creating serious geopolitical and security concerns across the Gulf region.
Iran’s Strategic Targets in the Gulf Region
Attacks on U.S. Military Bases and Assets
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Iran targeted American military bases and strategic assets across the Gulf region.
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Countries affected include:
- Saudi Arabia
- United Arab Emirates (UAE)
- Qatar
- Bahrain
- Jordan
- Iraq
- Syria
- Oman
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These attacks demonstrate Iran’s capability to strike deeply into U.S. security networks.
Strikes on Critical Energy Infrastructure
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Iran also targeted vital energy infrastructure, which is central to the global oil market.
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Major targets include:
- Oil depots
- Oil fields
- Gas fields
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Such strikes threaten global energy supply chains and international markets.
Closure of the Strait of Hormuz
- Iran reportedly closed or threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints.
- Around one-fifth of global oil trade passes through this strait.
- Its disruption has caused regional panic and global energy concerns.
Impact on Gulf Security Perceptions
Growing Doubts About U.S. Security Guarantees
- Gulf countries have long relied on American military protection.
- Iran’s successful strikes have raised serious doubts about the effectiveness of U.S. security guarantees.
- Regional leaders are now questioning the reliability of external security arrangements.
Sense of Strategic Vulnerability
- Many Gulf states feel shock and helplessness as their security systems appear inadequate.
- The situation has shattered the belief that U.S. protection could fully shield the region from major threats.
Search for Alternative Security Options
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Gulf countries are now exploring new security strategies, which may include:
- Diversifying military partnerships.
- Strengthening indigenous defence capabilities.
- Building new regional alliances.
The Gulf Security Arrangement
Origins of the Security Framework
- The current security structure emerged after the 1979 Iranian Revolution.
- Gulf monarchies felt threatened by the revolutionary regime in Iran.
- In response, the United States promised to defend Gulf stability.
The Carter Doctrine (1980)
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In his 1980 State of the Union Address, U.S. President Jimmy Carter declared that:
- Any attempt by external forces to control the Persian Gulf would be seen as a threat to U.S. vital interests.
- The United States would use military force if necessary to defend the region.
Later U.S. Security Initiatives
Proposal of an ‘Arab NATO’ (MESA)
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In 2017, the U.S. proposed the Middle East Strategic Alliance (MESA).
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This alliance aimed to include:
- Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries
- Egypt
- Jordan
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The initiative failed mainly due to the Qatar diplomatic crisis in 2017.
Security Guarantees to Qatar (2025)
- After an Israeli missile strike on Doha in September 2025, targeting Hamas leadership, the U.S. provided strong security assurances to Qatar.
- These assurances were described as similar to NATO’s Article 5 collective defence principle.
Failure of the Existing Security System
Limitations of U.S. Military Protection
- The ongoing conflict has exposed weaknesses in the U.S.-led security framework.
- Reports suggest that missile interceptor systems in Gulf countries are running out.
Prioritisation of Israel
- Due to limited supplies, the U.S. is prioritising interceptor systems for Israel, leaving Gulf states vulnerable.
- This situation highlights the dependency of Gulf countries on external defence systems.
Declining Trust in U.S. Commitments
- Many regional actors now believe that U.S. security guarantees may be unreliable in large-scale conflicts.
Lessons for India
Historical Dependence on Arms Imports
- India has historically been one of the largest importers of defence equipment.
- This dependence created strategic vulnerabilities.
Kargil War (1999) as a Turning Point
- The Kargil War exposed critical shortages of military equipment.
- The Kargil Review Committee recommended greater defence self-reliance.
Rise of Atmanirbhar Defence Production
Policy Push After 2014
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The concept of Atma Nirbhar Bharat (self-reliance) gained momentum after 2014.
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The government promoted:
- Domestic defence manufacturing
- Private sector participation
- Incentives for indigenous production
Growth of Defence Exports
- India’s defence exports reached ₹23,622 crore (~$2.78 billion) in FY 2024-25.
- Import dependence has declined to about 25–30%.
Key Indigenous Defence Platforms
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India has developed and exported several major systems, including:
- BrahMos supersonic missile
- Tejas light combat aircraft
- Indigenous artillery systems
- Ammunition and defence equipment
Possible Changes in Gulf Security Architecture
Reconsideration of U.S. Military Presence
- Countries such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar are reportedly reconsidering their military ties with the United States.
Potential Removal of U.S. Bases
- Some Gulf states are exploring the possibility of removing American military bases from their territory.
Major Regional Transformation
- If implemented, such moves would represent the biggest change in Gulf security architecture in nearly 50 years.
Key Takeaway
National Security Cannot Be Outsourced
- The Iran war highlights a crucial lesson for all countries.
- Dependence on external security guarantees can be risky in times of crisis.
- Nations must build strong indigenous defence capabilities and strategic autonomy to ensure long-term national security.
