What Iran’s Attacks Mean for Gulf Security

A critical examination of America's role in Gulf stability and the implications of military dependencies.
G
Gopi
5 mins read
External security has limits; self-reliance is the key to national defence

Background: U.S.–Israel Strikes on Iran

  • The war began on February 28, when the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran, citing “existential” and “imminent” threats.
  • Many analysts initially expected that the combined military power of the U.S. and Israel would defeat Iran quickly.
  • However, Iran retaliated strongly, striking targets previously considered safe or untouchable.
  • The conflict has now entered its second week, creating serious geopolitical and security concerns across the Gulf region.

Iran’s Strategic Targets in the Gulf Region

Attacks on U.S. Military Bases and Assets

  • Iran targeted American military bases and strategic assets across the Gulf region.

  • Countries affected include:

    • Saudi Arabia
    • United Arab Emirates (UAE)
    • Qatar
    • Bahrain
    • Jordan
    • Iraq
    • Syria
    • Oman
  • These attacks demonstrate Iran’s capability to strike deeply into U.S. security networks.

Strikes on Critical Energy Infrastructure

  • Iran also targeted vital energy infrastructure, which is central to the global oil market.

  • Major targets include:

    • Oil depots
    • Oil fields
    • Gas fields
  • Such strikes threaten global energy supply chains and international markets.

Closure of the Strait of Hormuz

  • Iran reportedly closed or threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints.
  • Around one-fifth of global oil trade passes through this strait.
  • Its disruption has caused regional panic and global energy concerns.

Impact on Gulf Security Perceptions

Growing Doubts About U.S. Security Guarantees

  • Gulf countries have long relied on American military protection.
  • Iran’s successful strikes have raised serious doubts about the effectiveness of U.S. security guarantees.
  • Regional leaders are now questioning the reliability of external security arrangements.

Sense of Strategic Vulnerability

  • Many Gulf states feel shock and helplessness as their security systems appear inadequate.
  • The situation has shattered the belief that U.S. protection could fully shield the region from major threats.

Search for Alternative Security Options

  • Gulf countries are now exploring new security strategies, which may include:

    • Diversifying military partnerships.
    • Strengthening indigenous defence capabilities.
    • Building new regional alliances.

The Gulf Security Arrangement

Origins of the Security Framework

  • The current security structure emerged after the 1979 Iranian Revolution.
  • Gulf monarchies felt threatened by the revolutionary regime in Iran.
  • In response, the United States promised to defend Gulf stability.

The Carter Doctrine (1980)

  • In his 1980 State of the Union Address, U.S. President Jimmy Carter declared that:

    • Any attempt by external forces to control the Persian Gulf would be seen as a threat to U.S. vital interests.
    • The United States would use military force if necessary to defend the region.

Later U.S. Security Initiatives

Proposal of an ‘Arab NATO’ (MESA)

  • In 2017, the U.S. proposed the Middle East Strategic Alliance (MESA).

  • This alliance aimed to include:

    • Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries
    • Egypt
    • Jordan
  • The initiative failed mainly due to the Qatar diplomatic crisis in 2017.

Security Guarantees to Qatar (2025)

  • After an Israeli missile strike on Doha in September 2025, targeting Hamas leadership, the U.S. provided strong security assurances to Qatar.
  • These assurances were described as similar to NATO’s Article 5 collective defence principle.

Failure of the Existing Security System

Limitations of U.S. Military Protection

  • The ongoing conflict has exposed weaknesses in the U.S.-led security framework.
  • Reports suggest that missile interceptor systems in Gulf countries are running out.

Prioritisation of Israel

  • Due to limited supplies, the U.S. is prioritising interceptor systems for Israel, leaving Gulf states vulnerable.
  • This situation highlights the dependency of Gulf countries on external defence systems.

Declining Trust in U.S. Commitments

  • Many regional actors now believe that U.S. security guarantees may be unreliable in large-scale conflicts.

Lessons for India

Historical Dependence on Arms Imports

  • India has historically been one of the largest importers of defence equipment.
  • This dependence created strategic vulnerabilities.

Kargil War (1999) as a Turning Point

  • The Kargil War exposed critical shortages of military equipment.
  • The Kargil Review Committee recommended greater defence self-reliance.

Rise of Atmanirbhar Defence Production

Policy Push After 2014

  • The concept of Atma Nirbhar Bharat (self-reliance) gained momentum after 2014.

  • The government promoted:

    • Domestic defence manufacturing
    • Private sector participation
    • Incentives for indigenous production

Growth of Defence Exports

  • India’s defence exports reached ₹23,622 crore (~$2.78 billion) in FY 2024-25.
  • Import dependence has declined to about 25–30%.

Key Indigenous Defence Platforms

  • India has developed and exported several major systems, including:

    • BrahMos supersonic missile
    • Tejas light combat aircraft
    • Indigenous artillery systems
    • Ammunition and defence equipment

Possible Changes in Gulf Security Architecture

Reconsideration of U.S. Military Presence

  • Countries such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar are reportedly reconsidering their military ties with the United States.

Potential Removal of U.S. Bases

  • Some Gulf states are exploring the possibility of removing American military bases from their territory.

Major Regional Transformation

  • If implemented, such moves would represent the biggest change in Gulf security architecture in nearly 50 years.

Key Takeaway

National Security Cannot Be Outsourced

  • The Iran war highlights a crucial lesson for all countries.
  • Dependence on external security guarantees can be risky in times of crisis.
  • Nations must build strong indigenous defence capabilities and strategic autonomy to ensure long-term national security.

Quick Q&A

Everything you need to know

Railway rolling stock refers to all movable railway vehicles that run on tracks. This includes locomotives, passenger coaches, freight wagons, metro cars, and modern trainsets such as Vande Bharat. These components are essential for railway operations and represent a critical segment of the transportation manufacturing industry. India has gradually built a strong ecosystem for rolling stock production through decades of investment in public sector manufacturing units and collaboration with private vendors.

Institutional infrastructure: The backbone of this ecosystem consists of dedicated production units of Indian Railways such as Chittaranjan Locomotive Works (CLW), Integral Coach Factory (ICF), Rail Coach Factory (RCF), Modern Coach Factory (MCF), and Diesel Locomotive Works (DLW). These units manufacture a wide variety of locomotives and coaches, meeting both domestic and emerging technological requirements. Additionally, Public Sector Undertakings such as BEML produce metro coaches and other specialized equipment.

Industrial ecosystem: Over time, a vast vendor base of small and medium enterprises has developed around these manufacturing units. They supply components such as braking systems, bogies, electronics, and safety systems. This integrated supply chain has allowed India to produce rolling stock at relatively competitive costs and with increasing technological sophistication. Despite this capability, India’s presence in the global rolling stock export market remains limited, raising questions about the country’s export strategy and international competitiveness.

Expanding exports of railway rolling stock is important for India because it aligns with the country’s broader goals of industrial growth, export diversification, and strategic economic diplomacy. Railways represent a high-value manufacturing sector that integrates heavy engineering, electronics, and advanced manufacturing technologies. If India successfully penetrates global markets, it could significantly enhance its manufacturing export portfolio.

Economic benefits: Exporting railway equipment can generate large-scale employment across the manufacturing value chain. It can also help Indian firms achieve economies of scale, reducing production costs and improving competitiveness. Moreover, railway infrastructure is a rapidly growing global market, especially in Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, where countries are expanding public transport networks.

Strategic and diplomatic benefits: Infrastructure exports often create long-term partnerships between countries. By supplying rolling stock and related technology, India can strengthen diplomatic ties with developing countries and expand its influence through development partnerships and capacity-building initiatives. This approach has already been used by countries such as China and Japan. Therefore, promoting railway exports could serve as both an economic and geopolitical tool for India.

India can enhance its competitiveness in the global rolling stock market through a combination of technological advancement, institutional reforms, and strategic partnerships. While the country already possesses manufacturing capacity, global competitiveness requires meeting stringent international standards and establishing strong global supply chains.

Technological upgrading: Indian manufacturers must invest in advanced technologies such as high-speed rail systems, lightweight materials, digital signalling integration, and energy-efficient propulsion systems. Collaboration with global technology leaders through joint ventures can accelerate technology transfer and innovation.

Policy and institutional reforms: The government can support exports through mechanisms such as export credit financing, standardization certification aligned with global norms, and trade diplomacy. Creating a dedicated export promotion strategy for railway products would help Indian firms compete with established global players.

Strategic partnerships: Indian companies can participate in international railway projects through public-private partnerships and infrastructure diplomacy. By bundling rolling stock exports with engineering services, training, and maintenance contracts, India can offer comprehensive railway solutions, improving its attractiveness in emerging markets.

Several structural and policy-related factors explain why India has not yet become a major exporter of railway rolling stock, despite having a large domestic manufacturing base. These factors relate to institutional focus, global competition, and market access challenges.

Domestic orientation: Historically, Indian railway production units were primarily designed to meet the requirements of the Indian Railways network, which is one of the largest in the world. As a result, production planning and technology development were oriented toward domestic needs rather than international markets. This inward focus limited exposure to global standards and export-oriented innovation.

Intense global competition: The international railway equipment market is dominated by large multinational firms such as CRRC (China), Alstom (France), Siemens (Germany), and Hitachi (Japan). These companies benefit from strong financial backing, advanced technologies, and government-supported export financing mechanisms.

Market access and branding issues: Many countries prefer suppliers with established international track records. Indian manufacturers have relatively limited global branding and marketing presence. Additionally, lack of integrated financing packages and after-sales service networks reduces competitiveness in global tenders.

Although India’s overall share in the global rolling stock market is modest, there have been several noteworthy examples where Indian companies and institutions have successfully exported railway equipment or collaborated internationally. These cases demonstrate the country’s potential to expand its presence in global markets.

Export of locomotives and coaches: India has supplied diesel locomotives and passenger coaches to countries such as Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Mozambique, Myanmar, and Tanzania. These exports were often part of broader development cooperation agreements supported by lines of credit from the Government of India.

Metro rail collaborations: Indian firms like BEML have participated in metro coach manufacturing and supply for various international projects. In addition, global companies such as Alstom and Bombardier (now part of Alstom) operate manufacturing facilities in India, producing metro coaches and components that are exported to other countries.

Vande Bharat and technological advancement: The development of the Vande Bharat Express trainsets by the Integral Coach Factory represents a major technological milestone. If standardized and adapted to international specifications, such indigenous innovations could become competitive export products in the future.

India’s ambition to become a major exporter of railway rolling stock presents significant opportunities but also faces substantial challenges. A balanced evaluation is necessary to understand the sector’s future prospects.

Opportunities: India possesses several structural advantages. These include competitive manufacturing costs, a large skilled engineering workforce, and extensive domestic experience in operating large railway networks. Emerging economies in Africa and Asia are investing heavily in railway infrastructure, creating potential markets where cost-effective solutions are in high demand.

Challenges: However, India must overcome technological gaps in areas such as high-speed rail systems, advanced signalling integration, and digital rail technologies. Furthermore, global competitors often provide integrated packages combining rolling stock, financing, construction, and long-term maintenance services.

Way forward: To address these challenges, India must adopt a comprehensive strategy involving technological innovation, stronger export financing mechanisms, international certification standards, and diplomatic engagement. If these measures are implemented effectively, India could transform its domestic railway manufacturing strength into a globally competitive export sector.

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