Sudan's Humanitarian Crisis: A Year of Abandoned War

Nature of the Conflict: The Sudan conflict, now in its fourth year, is primarily a power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) led by Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) led by Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo. It emerged after Sudan’s fragile democratic transition collapsed following the 2019 ouster of Omar al-Bashir. The conflict has led to a de facto division of the country, with the military controlling the north and east, and the RSF dominating Darfur and parts of Kordofan.

Humanitarian Dimensions: The crisis is unprecedented in scale, with over 13 million displaced, nearly 59,000 deaths, and about 34 million people requiring assistance. Famine conditions have emerged in several regions, and healthcare infrastructure has collapsed, with only 63% of facilities partially functional. Mass atrocities, including killings and sexual violence, have been widely reported, especially in Darfur.

Why “Abandoned Crisis”: The term reflects the lack of sustained international attention and intervention. Global focus has shifted to other conflicts such as those in West Asia, leading to reduced diplomatic engagement and humanitarian funding. Despite repeated warnings from the UN, efforts to broker a ceasefire have failed, highlighting a crisis of global governance and prioritisation.

Scale of Human Suffering: Sudan represents one of the gravest humanitarian disasters due to the sheer scale of displacement and hunger. With two-thirds of the population (34 million people) needing assistance and nearly 800,000 facing severe acute malnutrition, the crisis has reached famine-like conditions. The destruction of livelihoods and disruption of food supply chains have exacerbated vulnerabilities.

Collapse of Essential Services: The war has devastated critical infrastructure. Hospitals, ambulances, and medical workers have been targeted, leading to the deaths of over 2,000 individuals in healthcare settings. Disease outbreaks such as cholera have spread due to poor sanitation and lack of medical access. Rising fuel prices, influenced by global geopolitical tensions, have further driven up food costs, worsening the crisis.

Comparative Perspective: Unlike other crises that receive global attention, Sudan’s situation is marked by chronic neglect. For example, while conflicts in Ukraine or Gaza receive sustained media and diplomatic focus, Sudan suffers from funding gaps and limited intervention. This combination of scale, severity, and neglect makes it arguably the largest humanitarian challenge globally.

Role of Regional Powers: External actors have significantly shaped the trajectory of the conflict. Countries like Egypt are reported to support the Sudanese military, while the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has been accused of backing the RSF, including through arms supplies. There are also allegations of logistical support from bases in neighbouring countries such as Ethiopia.

Geopolitical Competition: Sudan’s strategic location along the Red Sea and its rich natural resources, including oil fields and gold mines, make it a site of geopolitical contestation. External involvement has transformed the conflict into a proxy battleground, complicating peace efforts. Competing interests of regional players hinder consensus on ceasefire mechanisms.

Implications: Such involvement prolongs the conflict and reduces the likelihood of a negotiated settlement. It also undermines Sudan’s sovereignty and increases civilian suffering. The risk of regional spillover grows as neighbouring countries may be drawn into the conflict, making it a broader Horn of Africa security concern.

Historical Context: Sudan has a long history of political instability, military coups, and regional inequalities. The 2019 ouster of Omar al-Bashir created hope for democratic transition, but the power-sharing arrangement between civilian and military actors remained fragile. The military retained significant control over key institutions and resources.

Immediate Triggers: The conflict was triggered by a power struggle between Gen. Burhan and Gen. Dagalo over issues such as integration of the RSF into the national army and control over economic assets. Mutual distrust and competition for dominance led to the collapse of negotiations and the outbreak of violence in 2023.

Structural Issues: Deep-rooted ethnic tensions, particularly in Darfur, and economic disparities further fuelled the conflict. The presence of armed militias like the Janjaweed, from which the RSF evolved, added to the complexity. The failure of international actors to ensure a stable transition also contributed to the breakdown.

Limited Diplomatic Success: The international community, including the United Nations and the United States, has attempted to mediate a ceasefire, but these efforts have largely failed. Competing global priorities, such as conflicts in West Asia, have diverted attention and resources away from Sudan.

Humanitarian Gaps: Despite recognition of the crisis, funding for humanitarian aid has been insufficient. Aid agencies face challenges in accessing conflict zones, and logistical constraints have limited the delivery of essential supplies. This reflects a broader issue of selective global engagement.

Critical Perspective: The response can be criticised for being reactive rather than proactive. While investigations by bodies like the International Criminal Court (ICC) into war crimes are important, they do little to immediately alleviate suffering. A more effective approach would involve coordinated diplomatic pressure, sanctions on external supporters of conflict, and sustained humanitarian funding.

Documented Atrocities: The Sudan conflict has seen widespread violations of human rights, including mass killings, ethnic targeting, and sexual violence. For instance, the RSF’s attack on el-Fasher reportedly killed around 6,000 people in just three days, with UN experts suggesting characteristics of genocide. Additionally, gang rapes and attacks on civilians have been widely reported.

Targeting of Healthcare: Another major violation is the deliberate targeting of hospitals, ambulances, and healthcare workers, resulting in over 2,000 deaths. Such actions violate the Geneva Conventions, which protect medical personnel and facilities during armed conflict.

Legal Implications: These acts fall under war crimes and crimes against humanity. The ICC has initiated investigations, particularly in Darfur. However, enforcement remains challenging due to lack of cooperation and political complexities. These examples highlight the urgent need for accountability mechanisms to deter future violations.

Regional Spillover Risks: Sudan’s instability poses significant risks to neighbouring countries such as South Sudan, Chad, and Ethiopia. The movement of refugees, arms trafficking, and cross-border ethnic tensions could destabilise the broader Horn of Africa. Analysts warn that the conflict may become more intractable if it spreads regionally.

Economic and Strategic Impact: Sudan’s location along the Red Sea makes it strategically important for global trade routes. Disruptions in this region could affect shipping and energy supplies. Additionally, control over natural resources like oil and gold may attract further external interference, intensifying geopolitical competition.

Global Lessons: As a case study, Sudan highlights the dangers of fragile transitions, militarisation, and external interference. It underscores the need for sustained international engagement in post-conflict transitions. Failure to address such crises can lead to prolonged instability, humanitarian disasters, and threats to global security.