Arms control agreements and multilateral nuclear negotiations are central to global strategic stability. Examine the challenges in expanding nuclear arms control frameworks and discuss their implications for global security and disarmament efforts.

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Context and significance Arms control agreements and multilateral nuclear negotiations have historically contributed to strategic stability by limiting arsenals, reducing miscalculation and promoting transparency, as seen in treaties like the NPT, New START and CTBT. However, the evolving global nuclear order has complicated efforts to expand such frameworks.

Challenges in expanding nuclear arms control frameworks

Multipolar nuclear landscape: Arms control was earlier bipolar (US–USSR), but the rise of China and regional nuclear powers complicates consensus-based negotiations.
Erosion of trust and compliance: Withdrawal from or suspension of treaties such as the INF Treaty and uncertainties around New START undermine confidence.
Asymmetry in capabilities: Differences in arsenal size, delivery systems, missile defence and emerging technologies make uniform limits difficult.
Technological disruptions: Hypersonic weapons, cyber vulnerabilities, AI-enabled systems and space-based assets fall outside traditional arms control definitions.
Divergent security perceptions: States prioritise national security over collective restraint, especially in volatile regions like Eastern Europe and East Asia.
Weak verification mechanisms: Expanding frameworks requires intrusive verification, which many states perceive as sovereignty violations.

Implications for global security and disarmament

Increased risk of arms races and vertical proliferation among major powers.
Higher probability of miscalculation, crisis instability and accidental escalation.
Marginalisation of disarmament goals under Article VI of the NPT.
Growing divide between nuclear weapon states and non-nuclear weapon states, reflected in debates over the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.

Way forward Revitalising strategic dialogue, adopting incremental confidence-building measures, integrating emerging technologies into negotiations, and strengthening multilateral institutions like the UN Conference on Disarmament are essential to sustain global security and advance realistic disarmament efforts.

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