1. Khaleda Zia and the Legacy of Competitive Politics in Bangladesh
Khaleda Zia’s death on December 30 marks the end of an era in Bangladesh’s post-independence political history. As the country’s first woman Prime Minister, she emerged as a central figure after the assassination of her husband, Gen. Ziaur Rahman, in 1981, symbolising the transition from military rule to civilian politics.
She played a decisive role in ending the military dictatorship in 1990, initially aligning with Sheikh Hasina of the Awami League to restore democratic governance. This phase underscored the importance of elite consensus in democratic transitions within fragile post-authoritarian states.
However, their subsequent rivalry — termed the ‘Battle of the Begums’ — entrenched adversarial, personality-driven politics. Over decades, this binary competition hollowed out institutions, normalised street mobilisation, and weakened democratic norms.
The passing of Khaleda Zia, alongside Sheikh Hasina’s exile after the 2024 uprising, signals a generational rupture. Yet, the absence of institutionalised leadership succession raises risks of political vacuum and instability.
Governance Logic: Democratic consolidation requires institutional continuity beyond charismatic leaders. When politics remains personality-centric, leadership exits create uncertainty, erode trust, and weaken the resilience of democratic systems.
2. Generational Transition and the Challenge before the BNP
Bangladesh is preparing for general elections on February 12, 2026, amid political flux. Tarique Rahman, 60 years old, Khaleda Zia’s son and acting chairman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), has returned after over 17 years of exile, positioning himself as a key contender in the new political phase.
His immediate task is internal party consolidation. The BNP remains faction-ridden, burdened by allegations of past political violence and extortion, which complicates its attempt to project itself as a credible alternative.
At a major rally in Dhaka, Tarique Rahman avoided rhetoric of retribution and emphasised unity and inclusivity. This marks a strategic shift aimed at expanding appeal beyond traditional party loyalists.
Nevertheless, Bangladesh’s current instability and the BNP’s historical record raise doubts about whether rhetorical moderation can translate into effective governance and institutional reform.
Governance Logic: Political renewal requires both leadership change and normative change. Without credible internal reform, leadership transitions risk reproducing past governance failures under new faces.
3. Interim Government, Law and Order Breakdown, and Electoral Credibility
The interim government led by Muhammad Yunus has struggled to restore public order. Persistent mob violence, including the lynching of a Hindu youth and arson attacks on two newspaper offices, points to a breakdown of rule of law.
Reports of renewed activity by operatives of the banned Jama’atul Mujahideen Bangladesh indicate a worsening internal security environment. This raises concerns about state capacity to manage extremism during political transitions.
A critical decision by the interim government to ban the Awami League, one of Bangladesh’s two largest political parties, from political activity has further polarised the polity. This exclusion undermines the inclusiveness and legitimacy of the forthcoming election.
Consequently, the electoral process risks being perceived as contested rather than consensual, weakening democratic credibility at a time when stability is most needed.
Governance Logic: Electoral legitimacy depends on inclusivity and security. When major stakeholders are excluded and law enforcement is weak, elections may exacerbate instability instead of resolving it.
4. Fragmentation of the Political Centre and Rise of Islamist Forces
The political vacuum has enabled new actors to emerge. The National Citizen Party, born out of the 2024 student uprising, claims to represent a break from traditional elite politics and seeks to capitalise on popular disillusionment.
However, its electoral alliance with Jamaat-e-Islami introduces ideological contradictions. Jamaat’s historical collaboration with the Pakistani military during the 1971 Liberation War remains a deeply contentious issue in Bangladesh’s national memory.
If Jamaat emerges as a significant political player or power broker, it would represent a structural shift in Bangladesh’s political spectrum, with uncertain implications for the country’s secular constitutional framework.
Such a realignment could weaken the ideological centre and complicate governance by empowering actors with limited commitment to pluralism.
Governance Logic: Democratic stability depends on a strong political centre. When centrist forces erode, polarisation and ideological extremism gain space, undermining constitutional values and social cohesion.
5. Security, Minorities, and Democratic Resilience
The resurgence of mob violence and attacks on minorities highlights the vulnerability of social cohesion during political uncertainty. The lynching of a Hindu youth underscores the risks faced by minorities when law enforcement weakens.
The possible reactivation of banned extremist groups further compounds these risks, linking political instability with internal security threats.
Such conditions strain democratic resilience by normalising violence as a political tool and eroding citizens’ confidence in state protection.
Failure to address these trends could entrench cycles of fear, migration, and radicalisation, with long-term developmental costs.
Governance Logic: Protection of minorities and maintenance of internal security are foundational to democratic legitimacy. Ignoring these dimensions weakens state authority and fuels long-term instability.
6. Rebuilding the Political Centre: Responsibility and Way Forward
Bangladesh’s immediate need is for leadership capable of restoring order, rebuilding public trust, and insulating politics from extremist capture. This responsibility rests significantly with Tarique Rahman and the BNP, as the only other major national force.
For the BNP, this requires moving beyond rhetoric to credible commitments on rule of law, political restraint, and institutional strengthening. Rebuilding trust demands distancing the party from its violent past.
More broadly, democratic renewal will depend on restoring competitive but constitutional politics, where elections resolve conflicts rather than intensify them.
The success or failure of this transition will shape Bangladesh’s governance trajectory for the coming decade.
Governance Logic: Sustainable political order emerges when parties prioritise institutions over short-term power. Without this shift, leadership change risks perpetuating instability rather than resolving it.
Conclusion
Bangladesh stands at a critical inflection point, marked by leadership transitions, weakened institutions, and ideological fragmentation. The manner in which political actors manage this phase will determine whether the country consolidates democracy or deepens instability. Rebuilding the political centre, restoring rule of law, and ensuring inclusive elections are essential for long-term governance and developmental outcomes.
