BNP Government's Key Priorities: Hasina and Ganga Waters Treaty

Bangladesh's incoming government emphasizes stopping border killings, Ganga treaty renewal, and addressing Hasina's presence in India for better ties.

Gopi

•February 14, 2026•5 mins read

BNP’s Return Signals Fresh Focus on Border Issues and Ganga Treaty with India

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1. Political Context and Bilateral Reset

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by Tarique Rahman, has returned to power after nearly two decades, securing an absolute majority in the February 12, 2026 Parliamentary elections. This marks a significant political transition in Dhaka and signals a potential recalibration of India–Bangladesh relations.

The incoming government has identified specific priority issues with India: stopping border killings, renewal of the Ganga Waters Treaty before December 2026, increasing medical visas, and addressing the continued presence of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in India.

The transition is important because India–Bangladesh ties have deepened over the past decade in connectivity, trade, and security cooperation. Any recalibration under the new regime may influence regional stability in South Asia, especially in the context of India’s Neighbourhood First and Act East policies.

Political transitions in neighbouring countries often reshape bilateral equations. If early irritants are not addressed, they may harden into structural distrust, affecting long-term strategic cooperation.

2. Border Killings and Human Security Concerns

The BNP has identified “border killings” by India’s Border Security Force (BSF) as a major irritant in bilateral ties. Reports of fatalities along the India–Bangladesh border reportedly trigger public protests, particularly among university students, escalating domestic political pressure on the government in Dhaka.

Bangladesh has a settled and demarcated border with India. The BNP has argued that suspected smugglers should be arrested rather than fired upon, calling for a more humane enforcement approach.

This issue has broader implications for cross-border cooperation. While India faces challenges of smuggling, cattle trade, and illegal migration, use-of-force incidents undermine trust and complicate diplomatic engagement.

“Out of all issues, it is the border killings by the Border Security Force of India that create great difficulty for the Government of Bangladesh.” — BNP source

Border management is not merely a security issue but a human security and diplomatic concern. If unresolved, it may erode public goodwill, fuel anti-India sentiment, and weaken cooperation on security and connectivity.

Implications:

Strained diplomatic relations
Campus protests and domestic political mobilisation in Bangladesh
Potential weakening of joint border management mechanisms
Adverse impact on people-to-people relations

Governance Dimension :

Border management
Human rights and use-of-force protocols
Federal coordination (border states involved)

3. Sheikh Hasina’s Presence in India and Political Sensitivities

The BNP has raised concerns about the continued presence of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her aides in India. According to party sources, her public comments about developments in Bangladesh could complicate the normalisation of bilateral relations.

This introduces a politically sensitive dimension into India–Bangladesh ties. While India may view hosting political leaders as a sovereign decision, Bangladesh’s new government may interpret such actions through the lens of domestic legitimacy and political rivalry.

The issue underscores how internal political developments in neighbouring countries can spill over into foreign policy.

Diplomatic engagement must balance sovereignty with sensitivity. If perceived as interference, even indirectly, such issues may generate mistrust and affect cooperation across sectors.

4. Renewal of the Ganga Waters Treaty (Due Before December 2026)

The Ganga Waters Treaty, signed in 1996, is due for renewal before December 2026. The BNP has indicated that treaty renewal will be a priority and expects a “fair” settlement.

Although technical teams were expected to meet over the past two years, discussions reportedly did not materialise, despite the issue being raised during Sheikh Hasina’s July 2024 visit to India.

Water-sharing remains a core bilateral issue due to its direct impact on agriculture, livelihoods, and ecological sustainability in downstream Bangladesh.

Water diplomacy is central to regional stability. River-sharing disputes, if not addressed cooperatively, can deepen asymmetries between upper and lower riparian states and generate long-term friction.

Transboundary water governance requires institutional continuity and technical dialogue. Delay in negotiations risks politicisation of water, which can convert a developmental issue into a strategic dispute.

Key Features:

Treaty originally signed in 1996
Renewal deadline: December 2026
Governs sharing of Ganga waters at Farakka Barrage

Governance & IR Linkages:

Upper vs Lower riparian dynamics
Climate variability and river flows (GS3 – Environment)
Federal dimension: Involvement of Indian states like West Bengal

5. Medical Visas and People-to-People Connectivity

The BNP has emphasised that the current number of Indian medical visas issued to Bangladeshi citizens is inadequate. Medical travel to India is viewed as a strong people-to-people connector due to geographical proximity, cultural familiarity, and relatively affordable healthcare.

The party has indicated that if access is restricted, Bangladeshis may increasingly turn to alternative destinations such as China for medical treatment.

This issue intersects with India’s soft power, health diplomacy, and regional influence. Medical tourism has been an important instrument of informal diplomacy in South Asia.

People-to-people engagement sustains long-term diplomatic capital. If medical access is constrained, strategic space may be ceded to competing regional actors.

Strategic Implications:

Impact on India’s soft power
Competition with China in regional outreach
Influence on trade in health services

Policy Dimension:

Visa liberalisation
Digital visa processing
Health diplomacy initiatives

6. Broader Strategic Implications for India

India–Bangladesh ties are multidimensional, covering trade, connectivity, security cooperation, energy, and river management. The BNP’s return may not reverse cooperation but could recalibrate priorities.

Key themes emerging:

Human rights-sensitive border management
Political sensitivity in hosting exiled leaders
Urgent water diplomacy before 2026 deadline
Leveraging medical and cultural connectivity

Therefore, India’s response will need to balance security imperatives with diplomatic accommodation.

Neighbourhood policy succeeds when security, sovereignty, and sensitivity are balanced. Ignoring emerging irritants risks incremental erosion of trust, even if structural cooperation remains intact.

Conclusion

The incoming BNP government has outlined a focused agenda for engagement with India—centred on border management, treaty renewal, political sensitivities, and medical connectivity.

Addressing these issues pragmatically before they escalate into structural disputes will be crucial for sustaining stability in eastern South Asia. A calibrated, institution-driven, and forward-looking approach can ensure that political transitions do not derail long-term strategic cooperation between the two neighbours.

Quick Q&A

Everything you need to know

Immediate Diplomatic Priorities: The incoming Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) government has identified three core areas for engagement with India: stopping border killings, renewing the Ganga Waters Treaty, and expanding medical visas. These issues span security, resource-sharing, and people-to-people connectivity, indicating a multi-dimensional approach to bilateral relations.

Security and Political Sensitivities: Border killings by India’s Border Security Force (BSF) have been described as highly emotive issues within Bangladesh, often triggering protests, especially among students. Additionally, the continued presence of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in India is seen as politically sensitive, affecting domestic perceptions of sovereignty and non-interference.

Strategic Significance: Together, these priorities reflect Bangladesh’s attempt to balance sovereignty concerns with pragmatic engagement. For India, addressing them requires calibrated diplomacy that recognises domestic political shifts in Dhaka while preserving long-term strategic partnership.

Human Security Dimension: Incidents of cross-border firing, particularly involving alleged smugglers, quickly escalate into political controversies. Bangladesh argues that with a settled international boundary, lethal force should be a last resort and suspects should be apprehended rather than shot.

Domestic Political Impact:

Reports of killings inflame public sentiment and student protests.
They create pressure on the Bangladeshi government to adopt a tougher stance.
They are often portrayed as violations of human rights.

Diplomatic Implication: For India, while border management is tied to concerns like smuggling and illegal crossings, excessive use of force risks undermining goodwill. A humane, rules-based border management system—joint patrolling, non-lethal technologies, and coordinated mechanisms—would help transform a recurring irritant into an area of cooperation.

Background: The 1996 Ganga Waters Treaty, valid for 30 years, is due for renewal before December 2026. It regulates water sharing at the Farakka Barrage during lean seasons, aiming to ensure equitable distribution.

Principles Involved:

Equitable and reasonable utilisation of shared rivers.
No significant harm to co-riparian states.
Institutionalised data-sharing and joint monitoring mechanisms.

Broader Context: Climate change, glacial melt, and variable rainfall patterns have altered river flows, making renegotiation complex. A fair and science-based renewal can strengthen bilateral trust and serve as a model for cooperation on other shared rivers like the Teesta. Conversely, failure to renew amicably could deepen mistrust and provide space for external actors to influence regional water diplomacy.

Sovereignty and Political Optics: Sheikh Hasina’s continued stay in India is perceived in Bangladesh as politically sensitive, particularly if she makes public comments about domestic developments. The incoming government may view this as interference, even if unintended.

Competing Considerations:

India’s Perspective: Offering refuge may reflect humanitarian or diplomatic considerations.
Bangladesh’s Perspective: Her presence could complicate reconciliation and political consolidation.

Balanced Assessment: Managing this issue requires discreet diplomacy. Public rhetoric could derail broader cooperation in trade, connectivity, and security. Quiet engagement, respect for sovereignty, and avoidance of provocative statements will be crucial for stabilising ties during political transition.

People-to-People Connectivity: India has traditionally been a preferred destination for Bangladeshi patients due to cultural familiarity, geographic proximity, and comparatively affordable healthcare. Expanding medical visas strengthens grassroots goodwill.

Soft Power Impact:

Enhances India’s image as a regional public goods provider.
Reduces the likelihood of Bangladesh seeking alternatives like China.
Builds interdependence beyond elite diplomacy.

Strategic Example: Medical diplomacy has been effectively used during the COVID-19 pandemic through vaccine supply initiatives. Similarly, facilitating treatment access can deepen societal bonds and counterbalance geopolitical competition in South Asia.

Case Context: The BNP’s return to power after two decades signals a political shift in Dhaka. India, which had close ties with the previous Awami League government, must recalibrate engagement strategies.

Adaptive Diplomacy:

Maintain institutional engagement beyond party lines.
Address emotive issues like border killings promptly.
Ensure continuity in connectivity and trade projects.

Lesson for India’s Neighbourhood Policy: Sustainable diplomacy cannot rely solely on personal equations with specific leaders. It must be rooted in mutual benefit, sensitivity to domestic political changes, and long-term institutional mechanisms. Successfully managing this transition will test India’s ability to balance strategic interests with democratic respect for evolving political mandates in neighbouring states.