What were the objectives and key features of China’s ‘Justice Mission-2025’ military exercises near Taiwan?

Objectives: The ‘Justice Mission-2025’ drills conducted by China’s People’s Liberation Army aimed to safeguard China’s sovereignty and national unity , while sending a clear warning to Taiwanese separatist forces and foreign interference. It underscores China’s stance that Taiwan is a breakaway province and highlights deterrence against any moves towards formal independence. Key Features: Three-dimensional deterrence using land, sea, and air forces. Air operations: 130 sorties were conducted, with 90 crossing the Taiwan Strait centreline. Long-range missile drills: 10 rockets landed in Taiwan’s contiguous zone, the closest ever. Focus on blockading key ports, comprehensive combat readiness, and demonstrating superiority in joint operations. Strategic Implication: These drills showcase China’s growing military capabilities and reinforce its ability to project power across the Taiwan Strait, serving both domestic and international signaling purposes.

Why does China conduct repeated military exercises near Taiwan, and what are the underlying geopolitical motivations?

Geopolitical Context: China has historically conducted military exercises near Taiwan in response to perceived provocations, such as high-profile visits by U.S. politicians to the island. These exercises demonstrate deterrence and signal China’s readiness to counter separatist movements. Underlying Motivations: Reinforce sovereignty claims over Taiwan and deter independence movements. Respond to external factors, such as arms sales or diplomatic support from countries like the U.S. Project military strength in the East and South China Seas, influencing regional strategic calculations. Example: The 2025 drills were influenced by the U.S. Trump administration’s proposed $11 billion arms sale to Taiwan, demonstrating China’s use of military signaling as a tool of coercive diplomacy and regional deterrence.

What are the potential regional and global implications of PLA drills near Taiwan?

Regional Security Implications: Heightened tensions in the East and South China Seas, affecting neighboring countries like Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea. Pressure on Taiwan to accelerate defence upgrades despite internal political challenges. Potential disruption of maritime trade routes and civilian activities in the Taiwan Strait. Global Implications: U.S.-China relations are further strained due to arms sales and strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific. European Union and other global actors have expressed concerns about peace and stability in the region. Signals of power projection by China may influence defence planning and alliances, including AUKUS, QUAD, and other regional security arrangements. Analysis: These exercises illustrate China’s use of military coercion as a geopolitical tool, raising questions about deterrence, balance of power, and the risk of escalation in a densely militarized region.

Can you provide examples of previous PLA military exercises near Taiwan and their triggers?

Historical Examples: 2022: Drills following U.S. Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan; involved carrier groups, nuclear submarines, and missile firings. April 2023: Exercises after Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen met U.S. officials, signaling opposition to Taiwan’s growing international engagement. August 2023: Smaller drills in response to then-Vice President William Lai Ching-te’s diplomatic trip to the Americas. April 2025: ‘Strait Thunder–2025A’ focused on advancing, deterrence, closure, destruction, and paralysis of Taiwan’s key points. Significance: These examples illustrate that PLA exercises are often triggered by perceived foreign interference or diplomatic actions by Taiwan, serving both coercive and deterrent functions, while demonstrating China’s increasing operational reach and readiness.

Discuss a potential scenario showing how PLA drills and U.S. arms sales could impact Taiwan’s security planning.

Scenario: The U.S. approves a major arms package to Taiwan, including advanced rocket launchers and self-propelled howitzers. In response, China escalates PLA drills across the Taiwan Strait, demonstrating capability to blockade ports and conduct missile strikes. Impact on Taiwan: Accelerated deployment of T-Dome air defence systems to counter missile threats. Pressure on Taiwan’s fragmented political system to coordinate military upgrades and defence budgets. Heightened civil-military preparedness and review of emergency response protocols. Broader Implications: Such a cycle of arms sales and military drills increases cross-strait tensions, affects regional stability, and compels neighboring countries like Japan to reassess their security posture. This scenario underscores the interlinked nature of diplomacy, military signaling, and defence planning in East Asia.

China's Military Drills: A Strategic Signal to Taiwan and the US

Q: How has Taiwan responded to China’s military exercises and what challenges does it face internally?

Taiwan’s Response: Taiwan has labeled China’s drills as provocative and coercive and is working to bolster its military capabilities, including proposals for a multi-layered air defence system called the ‘T-Dome’. This system aims to protect Taiwan from missile threats and enhance overall defensive readiness. Internal Challenges: Taiwan faces political fragmentation that slows defence planning. The Executive Yuan is led by the DPP, which strongly advocates independence, while the Legislative Yuan is dominated by opposition parties (KMT and TPP), making unified decision-making on military infrastructure difficult. Implications: Despite technological upgrades, Taiwan’s defence response is constrained by political incongruence, limiting its ability to swiftly implement comprehensive military reforms. This internal divide complicates its strategic posture in the face of escalating PLA exercises.

Q: Why did external actors, including the U.S., EU, and Japan, respond differently to China’s military drills?

U.S. Response: The United States underplayed the drills, reflecting a strategic approach to avoid direct escalation while continuing arms sales to Taiwan. This shows a balancing act between deterrence and engagement. European Union: The EU expressed concern that the drills increase cross-strait tensions and threaten international peace, reflecting a preference for multilateral diplomacy and regional stability. Japan: Newly elected Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi declared that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could threaten Japan’s survival. China condemned these remarks, highlighting how regional perceptions and security calculations differ. Reasoning: Divergent responses are influenced by geographic proximity, strategic alliances, economic interests, and historical ties. While the U.S. has a direct defence commitment and arms relationship with Taiwan, the EU focuses on diplomatic stability, and Japan considers its immediate territorial and security vulnerabilities.

Understanding the implications of China's recent military exercises around Taiwan and the United States' reactions.

Dhinesh Balasubramanian

•January 22, 2026•5 mins read

PLA conducts ‘Justice Mission-2025’ drills near Taiwan, signaling deterrence amid rising cross-strait tensions

Not Started

1. Context: PLA Military Exercises Around Taiwan (Dec 2025)

China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted a large-scale military exercise around Taiwan on December 29–30, 2025, marking the second such drill in the year. China’s Ministry of National Defence (MND) stated that the exercise aimed to safeguard national sovereignty and unity, while warning against Taiwanese separatism and foreign interference.

The drill reflects a continuing pattern of coercive military signalling by China in response to political and strategic developments related to Taiwan. It underscores Beijing’s position that Taiwan is a breakaway province and that reunification remains a core national objective.

For regional governance and stability, such exercises heighten military alertness, raise miscalculation risks, and affect economic confidence in the Taiwan Strait. Ignoring these signals could lead to underestimation of escalation dynamics in East Asia.

“The mission serves as a deterrent against separatist forces and external interference.” — China’s Ministry of National Defence

The core logic is strategic deterrence through military signalling; failure to interpret it correctly risks policy missteps and escalation.

2. Nature and Scope of ‘Justice Mission–2025’

The drill, codenamed ‘Justice Mission–2025’, focused on maritime control, combat readiness, comprehensive superiority, and blockade of key ports and territories. It involved coordinated operations across land, sea, and air domains, indicating a three-dimensional deterrence posture.

On the first day, the PLA conducted intensive air operations, demonstrating air dominance and pressure tactics. The second day shifted to long-range rocket firing, signalling escalation capability and proximity-based coercion.

Such exercises test operational readiness and convey China’s ability to impose a blockade or conduct precision strikes. If unaddressed diplomatically, these drills could normalise high-risk military behaviour.

Statistics:

Total air sorties on Day 1: 130
Sorties crossing Taiwan Strait median line: 90
Rockets fired on Day 2 landing in Taiwan’s contiguous zone: 10

The exercise demonstrates credible military capability designed to deter political defiance and external involvement.

3. Pattern of PLA Drills and Strategic Continuity

PLA exercises around Taiwan are not isolated events but part of a sustained pattern since 2022. The first major drill followed the visit of U.S. Speaker Nancy Pelosi, involving carrier groups, nuclear submarines, and missile launches.

Subsequent exercises were triggered by high-level Taiwan–U.S. engagements, including visits by President Tsai Ing-wen and Vice President William Lai Ching-te, as well as Taiwan’s presidential election outcome. In April 2025, the ‘Strait Thunder–2025A’ drill focused on deterrence, closure, destruction, and paralysis.

This continuity suggests a deliberate strategy of normalising military pressure. Ignoring this trajectory risks misreading China’s long-term coercive approach.

Repetition of drills embeds deterrence into routine military posture, reducing thresholds for escalation.

4. External Triggers: U.S. Arms Sales and Regional Statements

‘Justice Mission–2025’ coincided with the Trump administration’s proposed $11 billion arms sale to Taiwan, pending U.S. Congressional approval. The package includes self-propelled howitzers, advanced rocket launchers, and missiles, reinforcing Taiwan’s defensive capacity.

China views such arms sales as foreign interference, a key justification cited for the drill. Additionally, statements by Japan’s newly elected Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, asserting that an attack on Taiwan would threaten Japan’s survival, further escalated tensions.

These developments internationalise the Taiwan issue, complicating crisis management. Failure to manage external signalling could entrench bloc-based confrontation.

Causes:

Proposed U.S. arms sale to Taiwan: $11 billion
Increasing political statements by regional powers on Taiwan’s security

External involvement amplifies China’s security concerns and intensifies coercive responses.

5. Taiwan’s Response and Domestic Political Constraints

Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council termed the drills “provocative and coercive,” reflecting official concern over escalating pressure. Militarily, Taiwan has proposed a multi-layered air defence system known as ‘T-Dome’ to strengthen deterrence.

However, progress remains slow due to internal political divisions. While the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) controls the Executive Yuan and supports stronger defence and sovereignty, the Legislative Yuan is led by the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), which block key defence legislation.

This institutional incongruence weakens Taiwan’s strategic coherence. If unresolved, it may limit effective defence preparedness.

Domestic political fragmentation constrains timely military modernisation and policy response.

6. International Reactions and Regional Implications

The United States downplayed the drills, while the European Commission expressed concern that such actions increase cross-strait tensions and threaten international peace and stability. China explicitly cited foreign interference as a rationale for the exercise.

Japan’s heightened rhetoric and China’s demand for retraction indicate expanding regional stakes beyond the Taiwan Strait. This impacts Indo-Pacific security architecture and freedom of navigation.

For global governance, sustained tensions risk disrupting trade routes, supply chains, and diplomatic stability. Neglecting multilateral engagement could deepen strategic polarisation.

Regional responses show that Taiwan has become a broader Indo-Pacific security flashpoint.

Conclusion

The PLA’s ‘Justice Mission–2025’ exercise reflects a sustained strategy of military deterrence, signalling China’s resolve on Taiwan amid external involvement and internal Taiwanese dynamics. As drills grow in scale and proximity, the risks of miscalculation increase. Long-term regional stability will depend on calibrated diplomacy, crisis management mechanisms, and balanced deterrence to prevent escalation in the Taiwan Strait.

Quick Q&A

Everything you need to know

Objectives: The ‘Justice Mission-2025’ drills conducted by China’s People’s Liberation Army aimed to safeguard China’s sovereignty and national unity, while sending a clear warning to Taiwanese separatist forces and foreign interference. It underscores China’s stance that Taiwan is a breakaway province and highlights deterrence against any moves towards formal independence.

Key Features:

Three-dimensional deterrence using land, sea, and air forces.
Air operations: 130 sorties were conducted, with 90 crossing the Taiwan Strait centreline.
Long-range missile drills: 10 rockets landed in Taiwan’s contiguous zone, the closest ever.
Focus on blockading key ports, comprehensive combat readiness, and demonstrating superiority in joint operations.

Strategic Implication: These drills showcase China’s growing military capabilities and reinforce its ability to project power across the Taiwan Strait, serving both domestic and international signaling purposes.

Geopolitical Context: China has historically conducted military exercises near Taiwan in response to perceived provocations, such as high-profile visits by U.S. politicians to the island. These exercises demonstrate deterrence and signal China’s readiness to counter separatist movements.

Underlying Motivations:

Reinforce sovereignty claims over Taiwan and deter independence movements.
Respond to external factors, such as arms sales or diplomatic support from countries like the U.S.
Project military strength in the East and South China Seas, influencing regional strategic calculations.

Example: The 2025 drills were influenced by the U.S. Trump administration’s proposed $11 billion arms sale to Taiwan, demonstrating China’s use of military signaling as a tool of coercive diplomacy and regional deterrence.

Taiwan’s Response: Taiwan has labeled China’s drills as provocative and coercive and is working to bolster its military capabilities, including proposals for a multi-layered air defence system called the ‘T-Dome’. This system aims to protect Taiwan from missile threats and enhance overall defensive readiness.

Internal Challenges: Taiwan faces political fragmentation that slows defence planning. The Executive Yuan is led by the DPP, which strongly advocates independence, while the Legislative Yuan is dominated by opposition parties (KMT and TPP), making unified decision-making on military infrastructure difficult.

Implications: Despite technological upgrades, Taiwan’s defence response is constrained by political incongruence, limiting its ability to swiftly implement comprehensive military reforms. This internal divide complicates its strategic posture in the face of escalating PLA exercises.

Regional Security Implications:

Heightened tensions in the East and South China Seas, affecting neighboring countries like Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea.
Pressure on Taiwan to accelerate defence upgrades despite internal political challenges.
Potential disruption of maritime trade routes and civilian activities in the Taiwan Strait.

Global Implications:

U.S.-China relations are further strained due to arms sales and strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific.
European Union and other global actors have expressed concerns about peace and stability in the region.
Signals of power projection by China may influence defence planning and alliances, including AUKUS, QUAD, and other regional security arrangements.

Analysis: These exercises illustrate China’s use of military coercion as a geopolitical tool, raising questions about deterrence, balance of power, and the risk of escalation in a densely militarized region.

U.S. Response: The United States underplayed the drills, reflecting a strategic approach to avoid direct escalation while continuing arms sales to Taiwan. This shows a balancing act between deterrence and engagement.

European Union: The EU expressed concern that the drills increase cross-strait tensions and threaten international peace, reflecting a preference for multilateral diplomacy and regional stability.

Japan: Newly elected Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi declared that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could threaten Japan’s survival. China condemned these remarks, highlighting how regional perceptions and security calculations differ.

Reasoning: Divergent responses are influenced by geographic proximity, strategic alliances, economic interests, and historical ties. While the U.S. has a direct defence commitment and arms relationship with Taiwan, the EU focuses on diplomatic stability, and Japan considers its immediate territorial and security vulnerabilities.

Historical Examples:

2022: Drills following U.S. Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan; involved carrier groups, nuclear submarines, and missile firings.
April 2023: Exercises after Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen met U.S. officials, signaling opposition to Taiwan’s growing international engagement.
August 2023: Smaller drills in response to then-Vice President William Lai Ching-te’s diplomatic trip to the Americas.
April 2025: ‘Strait Thunder–2025A’ focused on advancing, deterrence, closure, destruction, and paralysis of Taiwan’s key points.

Significance: These examples illustrate that PLA exercises are often triggered by perceived foreign interference or diplomatic actions by Taiwan, serving both coercive and deterrent functions, while demonstrating China’s increasing operational reach and readiness.

Scenario: The U.S. approves a major arms package to Taiwan, including advanced rocket launchers and self-propelled howitzers. In response, China escalates PLA drills across the Taiwan Strait, demonstrating capability to blockade ports and conduct missile strikes.

Impact on Taiwan:

Accelerated deployment of T-Dome air defence systems to counter missile threats.
Pressure on Taiwan’s fragmented political system to coordinate military upgrades and defence budgets.
Heightened civil-military preparedness and review of emergency response protocols.

Broader Implications: Such a cycle of arms sales and military drills increases cross-strait tensions, affects regional stability, and compels neighboring countries like Japan to reassess their security posture. This scenario underscores the interlinked nature of diplomacy, military signaling, and defence planning in East Asia.

Attribution

Original content sources and authors

Femy Francis

The Hindu

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