1. Context: Renewable Expansion vs Grid Preparedness
India witnessed an unprecedented expansion of renewable energy capacity in 2025, adding 48 GW — the highest annual addition so far. This nearly doubled the previous year’s additions and was driven primarily by solar and wind installations.
As of 2025, non-fossil fuel sources account for 52% of installed power capacity (≈264 GW), exceeding the combined capacity of coal, gas and lignite. However, despite this installed capacity dominance, nearly 75% of actual electricity generation continues to come from coal due to its reliability and on-demand availability.
This structural mismatch between installed capacity and actual generation highlights a systemic issue: India’s grid infrastructure has not evolved at the same pace as renewable expansion. The inability to seamlessly switch between variable renewable sources and conventional thermal power has begun creating operational risks.
"We have already started to see that because of the variability in solar and wind, there are oscillations that have started happening to the grid and this is really dangerous." — Ghanshyam Prasad, Chairperson, CEA
The energy transition is not merely about adding renewable capacity; it is equally about ensuring grid flexibility and reliability. If grid modernisation lags behind capacity expansion, it can undermine energy security and public trust in renewables.
2. The Core Issue: Grid Oscillations and Systemic Vulnerability
The Central Electricity Authority (CEA) has flagged “oscillations” in the grid arising from variability in solar and wind generation. These oscillations are fluctuations in transmission voltage and frequency that can damage equipment or trigger large-scale blackouts.
A recent incident saw an oscillation originating in Rajasthan being felt as far as Kudankulam in Tamil Nadu — home to India’s largest nuclear reactors. Although no damage was reported, the episode illustrates the integrated and interdependent nature of India’s national grid.
The problem stems from the intermittency of renewable energy sources. Solar generation fluctuates with cloud cover and diurnal cycles, while wind power varies with atmospheric conditions. Without adequate balancing mechanisms — such as battery storage or flexible thermal plants — these fluctuations create grid instability.
Causes:
- High variability of solar and wind generation
- Limited real-time balancing capacity
- Inadequate energy storage infrastructure
- Grid not sufficiently “smart” or flexible
In an integrated national grid, local instability can cascade into systemic risks. Without investment in grid flexibility and storage, renewable growth could paradoxically increase vulnerability rather than enhance sustainability.
3. Curtailment: Economic and Efficiency Costs
The inadequacy of grid infrastructure has forced power producers to undertake “curtailment,” where renewable electricity is deliberately switched off despite being available.
Between May and December 2025, India curtailed approximately 2,300 GWh of solar power. This represents lost clean energy, foregone revenue for developers, and inefficient utilisation of public and private investments.
Curtailment also weakens investor confidence and distorts market signals. While renewable capacity expands on paper, its effective contribution to the energy mix is constrained by infrastructure bottlenecks.
Impacts:
- Financial stress for renewable developers
- Reduced efficiency of capital investment
- Continued dependence on coal
- Slower progress toward climate commitments
Curtailment indicates that generation expansion without transmission and storage reform leads to sub-optimal outcomes. If unaddressed, it may discourage future renewable investments and slow India’s energy transition.
4. Long-Term Energy Goals and the Scale of Transition
India’s energy ambitions are expansive and long-term. The country targets 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030, and its pathway to net-zero emissions by 2070 could require installed capacity to rise to nearly 6,000 GW.
By 2047 — marking 100 years of independence — India is expected to have nearly four times its current installed capacity. This reflects rising energy demand due to economic growth, urbanisation, electrification of transport, and industrial expansion.
However, scaling generation alone is insufficient. Without proportional investments in transmission infrastructure, storage systems, smart grids, and demand-side management, expansion risks systemic stress.
Future Targets:
- 500 GW non-fossil capacity by 2030
- Net-zero emissions by 2070
- Installed capacity potentially reaching ~6,000 GW
The magnitude of India’s future energy system demands integrated planning. A generation-centric approach without grid reform can jeopardise both climate goals and energy security.
5. Governance and Policy Dimensions (GS3 Linkages)
The issue reflects a broader governance challenge in India’s energy transition — coordination between generation planning, grid management, regulatory reforms, and financial investment.
Key institutional actors include:
- Central Electricity Authority (CEA)
- Ministry of Power
- Renewable energy developers
- State distribution companies (DISCOMs)
Grid modernisation requires:
- Investment in battery storage and pumped hydro
- Smart grid technologies
- Flexible thermal plant operations
- Strengthened transmission corridors
- Real-time monitoring and response systems
This also intersects with fiscal policy (public investment), federalism (state-level grid integration), and industrial policy (domestic manufacturing of storage technologies).
Energy transition is a whole-of-system reform. Fragmented policy approaches can create technical bottlenecks that undermine climate, economic, and security objectives.
6. Broader Implications for Energy Security and Development
India’s experience illustrates a fundamental principle of energy transitions: reliability must evolve alongside sustainability. Coal continues to supply nearly 75% of actual electricity, underscoring its current indispensability despite renewable expansion.
Therefore, the transition must be calibrated rather than abrupt. Over-reliance on variable renewables without adequate balancing capacity can expose the grid to instability, affecting industries, households, and critical infrastructure.
This has implications for:
- Industrial competitiveness
- Financial stability of DISCOMs
- Investor confidence
- Public acceptance of renewable policies
Energy security remains foundational to economic development. If grid instability leads to blackouts or financial stress, it can slow economic growth and erode support for decarbonisation policies.
Conclusion
India’s renewable expansion marks a significant step toward sustainable development and climate leadership. However, the recent grid oscillations highlight that capacity addition must be matched by grid modernisation, storage deployment, and institutional coordination.
The success of India’s 2030 and 2070 goals will depend not only on megawatts installed, but on the resilience, flexibility, and intelligence of the power system that delivers them. A stable grid is the backbone of both economic growth and a credible energy transition.