What explains Pakistan’s recent surge in defence exports, particularly to conflict-affected regions such as Libya and Sudan?

Pakistan’s recent defence export surge reflects a convergence of strategic opportunism, military entrepreneurship, and geopolitical alignment. The reported $4.6 billion deal with Libya’s Libyan National Army (LNA), involving JF-17 fighter jets and trainer aircraft, marks Islamabad’s largest-ever arms agreement. Similar negotiations with Sudan further demonstrate Pakistan’s intent to position itself as a net security provider to Gulf-backed regional proxies.Several enabling factors underpin this surge. First, Pakistan has leveraged its joint ventures with China and Türkiye to assemble relatively affordable platforms such as the JF-17. Second, it has capitalised on Gulf financing—particularly from the UAE and Saudi Arabia—thereby mitigating the financial constraints of conflict-affected buyers. Third, the Pakistan military establishment works in an integrated manner, with senior generals directly negotiating deals, blending diplomacy, military outreach, and commerce.This export push is also politically timed. Islamabad has sought to leverage claimed operational successes in regional conflicts and improved ties with Washington and Gulf monarchies. Thus, Pakistan’s defence exports are not merely commercial transactions but instruments of geopolitical positioning and regime legitimacy.

Critically examine the structural and geopolitical constraints that may limit Pakistan’s defence export ambitions.

Despite headline-grabbing deals, Pakistan’s defence export ambitions face significant structural limitations. Its industrial capacity to produce JF-17 aircraft is reportedly limited to about 25 units annually, shared between domestic requirements and exports. Moreover, Pakistan largely assembles platforms using foreign-sourced components—Chinese avionics, Russian engines, and Turkish missiles—creating supply-chain vulnerabilities.Geopolitically, many recipient countries such as Libya and Sudan are under United Nations arms embargoes, raising legal and reputational risks. Furthermore, the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the UAE complicates Islamabad’s balancing act, particularly if Pakistani-supplied weapons reach rival factions in regional conflicts. Dependence on third-party financing also creates pinch points if political winds shift.Additionally, Pakistan’s growing proximity to both Washington and Beijing may prove contradictory. While transactional U.S. engagement could facilitate some deals, Washington may resist the transfer of Chinese-linked military hardware to strategically sensitive regions. Thus, Pakistan’s expansion, though bold, rests on fragile foundations of external finance, geopolitical fluidity, and industrial dependency.

Why should Pakistan’s emergence as a regional security provider concern India?

Pakistan’s growing defence footprint in the Gulf and beyond carries strategic implications for India. While India enjoys far stronger economic engagement with Gulf countries, Pakistan’s ability to embed itself in their security architecture could alter regional power equations. Defence relationships often generate long-term military-to-military ties, intelligence cooperation, and political goodwill that transcend commercial value.By positioning itself as a net security provider, Pakistan may reclaim a semblance of parity with India in West Asia. This could dilute India’s diplomatic leverage, especially if Islamabad leverages Islamic solidarity narratives alongside aggressive pricing and military diplomacy. Furthermore, such engagement helps Pakistan rehabilitate its global image, overshadowing past concerns regarding terrorism and financial irregularities.There is also a security dimension. Enhanced financial flows and strategic confidence may embolden Pakistan’s military establishment. Even if defence exports do not materially weaken India, they can tilt geopolitical perception in Islamabad’s favour, which in turn shapes strategic behaviour. Thus, the concern is not purely commercial but reputational and geopolitical.

How does Pakistan’s defence export model differ from India’s current approach, and what lessons can India draw?

Pakistan’s defence export model is characterised by institutional integration and aggressive marketing. Senior military leaders personally negotiate deals, aligning diplomatic outreach, financing arrangements, and military training packages. For instance, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff reportedly engaged directly with Libyan and Saudi counterparts to finalise agreements.In contrast, India’s defence exports—though growing to $2.8 billion—often operate through fragmented institutional channels, with bureaucratic procedures and siloed coordination between ministries and defence producers. While India adheres strictly to international law and responsible export norms, it sometimes lacks agility in deal-making and follow-up support.The lesson for India lies not in replicating questionable practices but in institutional reform. A dedicated defence export promotion body, empowered to negotiate autonomously and coordinate financing, marketing, and technical support, could enhance India’s competitiveness. Leveraging lines of credit, development assistance, and trade relationships—particularly in the Global South—can create ethically grounded yet strategically robust export ecosystems.

How can India bridge the gap between being a major arms importer and an aspiring defence exporter?

India must transition from a buyer-dominated ecosystem to an export-oriented military-industrial strategy. Currently, India ranks among the world’s largest arms importers while its export share remains modest. Bridging this gap requires structural reforms in production, marketing, and financing.First, India should prioritise indigenous platforms such as the Tejas aircraft, BrahMos missile, and advanced artillery systems for export to friendly nations. Second, oil-import leverage can be strategically utilised—India, as a major crude importer, can negotiate reciprocal procurement arrangements with supplier nations. Third, India’s development aid and concessional credit lines can be aligned with defence exports in a transparent and rule-based manner.Institutionally, creating a nimble export promotion organisation embedded with defence producers, financial institutions, and technology experts is critical. Such an entity must aggressively participate in global exhibitions and conclude deals with minimal bureaucratic delay. Only through coordinated statecraft can India convert industrial capability into sustained export momentum.

As a policy adviser, how would you design a strategy for India to respond to Pakistan’s defence diplomacy in West Asia and Africa?

A calibrated, multi-dimensional strategy would be essential. First, India must deepen defence cooperation with key Gulf partners through joint exercises, training programmes, and technology transfers, reinforcing trust without militarising relationships excessively. Second, India should prioritise exports to stable, friendly governments rather than conflict theatres, preserving its reputation as a responsible actor.Third, India must invest in narrative-building—projecting itself as a reliable partner offering quality systems, lifecycle support, and adherence to international law. Unlike Pakistan’s price-driven model, India can emphasise technological sophistication and democratic credibility. Enhanced defence industrial partnerships with France, Israel, and the United States can also raise product standards and interoperability appeal.Finally, domestic reform is crucial. Increasing R&D intensity, integrating private-sector innovation, and reducing procedural delays will strengthen competitiveness. The objective should not be to match Pakistan deal-for-deal but to build a sustainable, rules-based export ecosystem that enhances India’s long-term geopolitical standing.

Search Today Mains CSAT

Pakistan's Arms Sales Surge Demands India's Attention

The recent arms deals by Pakistan, particularly in the Libyan and Sudanese conflicts, reshape regional geopolitics.

Gopi

•March 4, 2026•6 mins read

Pakistan expands defence footprint in Gulf and Africa

Pakistan has recently undertaken high-profile defence engagements, including a reported $4.6 billion arms deal with Libya’s eastern-based Libyan National Army (LNA) led by Khalifa Haftar. This marks Islamabad’s largest-ever defence export arrangement and reflects a deliberate push to reposition itself as a regional security provider. The...

Pakistan's Arms Sales Surge Demands India's Attention

Practice Questions

No Prelims Content Available

Attribution

Comments (0)