What does the idea of a “war-adjacent economy” mean in the contemporary global context, and how is it different from a full-fledged war economy?

A “war-adjacent economy” refers to a peacetime economic structure that is strategically prepared to transition rapidly into war production if required. Unlike a full-fledged war economy—where resources are overwhelmingly diverted toward military production and civilian consumption is restricted—a war-adjacent economy maintains normal economic functioning while building latent defence-industrial capacity.In today’s environment, conflicts are multidimensional, involving cyber warfare, drones, missiles, and attacks on civilian infrastructure. This requires integration between civilian industry and defence manufacturing. For instance, automobile and electronics industries can be repurposed to manufacture military vehicles, drones, or communication systems. Countries like the United States and Israel maintain such flexible industrial ecosystems, enabling rapid scaling of military output during crises.For India, this model implies strengthening domestic defence production, creating private-sector champions, and ensuring stockpiles of critical resources such as oil and rare earths. It balances growth priorities with security imperatives, ensuring deterrence without sacrificing developmental goals.

Why is deterrence considered central to preventing wars in India’s neighbourhood?

Deterrence operates on the principle that wars are prevented when adversaries believe they cannot achieve their objectives at an acceptable cost. In India’s context, this is particularly relevant given the presence of nuclear-armed neighbours and state-sponsored non-state actors. The Pakistan-China-Türkiye-Azerbaijan alignment and recurring border tensions highlight the complexity of India’s security environment.The 2022 Ukraine war and recent West Asian conflicts illustrate that military weakness or perceived vulnerability can embolden adversaries. India’s experience with cross-border terrorism and limited conflicts underscores the need for credible conventional and non-conventional deterrence. If India’s air force strength remains below sanctioned levels, or if cyber and information warfare capabilities lag, deterrence credibility may weaken.Thus, strengthening defence preparedness—through indigenisation, intelligence enhancement, and cyber capabilities—is not about aggression but about ensuring peace. Effective deterrence reduces the probability of miscalculation and limits the scope for proxy or hybrid warfare.

How do modern wars expand beyond traditional battlefields, and what lessons should India draw from recent global conflicts?

Modern wars increasingly target civilian, industrial, and digital infrastructure, blurring the line between combatants and non-combatants. The Ukraine conflict saw systematic attacks on power grids and critical infrastructure, while West Asian hostilities have involved missile and drone strikes affecting multiple countries’ civilian areas.Such conflicts demonstrate that strength in conventional forces alone is insufficient. Cyber warfare, misinformation campaigns, drone swarms, and energy chokepoints are central tools. For example, disruptions in the Straits of Hormuz highlight vulnerabilities in energy supply chains. Similarly, information warfare can create internal divisions and weaken public morale.India must therefore integrate civilian defence protocols, protect power grids and digital networks, maintain energy reserves, and establish wartime media guidelines. Preparing state governments and police forces for coordinated civilian defence is equally critical. The lesson is clear: resilience across economic, digital, and social systems is as important as battlefield superiority.

Critically analyze India’s defence preparedness in light of emerging geopolitical realities.

India has made notable strides in defence modernization, including initiatives like ‘Make in India’ in defence and increased capital expenditure. However, gaps remain. The Indian Air Force operates below its sanctioned squadron strength, and indigenous projects such as the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft are years away from deployment.On the positive side, India has diversified arms procurement, strengthened strategic partnerships, and invested in missile and space capabilities. Indigenous platforms like the Tejas fighter and INS Vikrant demonstrate progress toward self-reliance.Yet challenges persist: slow procurement cycles, limited private-sector scale, and dependence on imports for critical components. Moreover, cyber and information warfare capabilities require faster scaling. The geopolitical environment—marked by China’s rise, instability in West Asia, and uncertain neighbourhood dynamics—demands accelerated reforms. A calibrated yet urgent enhancement of defence capacity is essential to maintain credible deterrence.

As a policymaker, how would you operationalize the integration of civilian and defence sectors to enhance national security?

Operationalizing civilian-defence integration requires institutional, industrial, and technological coordination. First, the government should identify key private-sector firms in aerospace, electronics, AI, and shipbuilding, and designate them as strategic partners with assured long-term procurement contracts.Second, academia-industry collaboration must be strengthened. Universities and IITs can contribute to research in AI-driven drones, cybersecurity tools, and advanced materials. Israel’s model—where defence R&D fuels civilian technological innovation—offers a useful template.Third, crisis protocols should allow rapid conversion of civilian production lines to defence manufacturing. For example, automotive plants could produce military transport vehicles, while telecom firms could assist in secure communication systems. Complementing this with stockpiling of oil and critical minerals would ensure sustainability during prolonged conflict. Such integration enhances deterrence while preserving economic vitality.

What are the key reasons for emphasizing intelligence and information warfare in contemporary security strategy?

Intelligence and information warfare are pivotal because modern conflicts are increasingly hybrid in nature. Success depends not only on firepower but on anticipation, deception, and narrative control. The targeted elimination of leadership figures in recent conflicts demonstrates the value of precise intelligence gathering that combines technology and human sources.Information warfare can shape public opinion, influence elections, and incite communal tensions. Adversaries may exploit social media to spread misinformation, demoralize populations, or create internal instability. In India’s diverse society, such tactics could weaken internal cohesion during crises.Therefore, strengthening cyber capabilities, enhancing HUMINT networks, and establishing wartime media protocols are strategic necessities. A secure and informed population strengthens national resilience, ensuring that external aggression does not translate into internal fragmentation.

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Preparing India's Economy for an Uncertain Future

Adapting India's economy to face the realities of a conflict-driven global landscape with strategic foresight and resilience.

Surya

•March 4, 2026•6 mins read

Prepare for war to preserve peace

In 2022, Prime Minister Narendra Modi remarked at the SCO Summit in Samarkand, “I know that today’s era is not of war…”. However, subsequent developments — the prolonged Ukraine conflict, renewed hostilities in West Asia involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran, and multiple regional wars — indicate a structurally unstable global order. The...

Preparing India's Economy for an Uncertain Future

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